SEC Competitive Bottom to Top
Six SEC teams are ranked in the top 25 of this week’s Associated Press, and all twelve teams have received poll votes this season. More importantly, the average point spread in this season’s 11 SEC match-ups is 9.91 points with 8 games decided by less than 10 points. Road teams are 8 and 3. The SEC is 26-5 in non-conference games. Filling 98.7% of total stadium capacity, 2,564,184 fans have attended SEC games this season. more…
Economists Suggests BCS Delivers Through Better Matching
Harvard Economists suggests the higher likelihood of competitive games has come from the BCS system mainly due to delayed matching of teams. Prior to the BCS, matches were often made via conference – bowl commitments along with early matching of independent teams. This unraveling of a market often delivers less than desired outcomes and has been largely eliminated during the BCS era.
This is not to say the current system is the ideal market clearing mechanism. It is just better than what we had. Their paper, “Unraveling Yields Inefficient Matchings: Evidence from Post-Season College Football Bowls,” is available for download [pdf].
Georgia leads 6 teams getting 1st place votes
The 2008 preseason poll comes out with 6 teams, 3 from the SEC, getting first place votes. The leading vote getter, Georgia, was reminded of what got ‘em there by Coach Richt. We’ll save that for later.
Preseason polls are interesting and unfortunately matter more than they should as pollsters do not like to move teams above an unbeaten team even if performance on the field indicates they should. In the last 5 years this has begun to happen and hopefully when justified this will continue.
So in the interest of… interest, I’ll start with a question. Does this represent where voters believe teams will be ranked at the end of the season or is it a simple list from top to bottom of who would beat whom on a neutral field 2 out of 3 meetings?
Let’s go with the latter and begin. Three top ten teams should not be there. Ohio State will win 10 and probably 11 games. They won’t beat Oklahoma, Florida of LSU on most days and should be at 6 or 7th just a few slots above Wisconsin who should round out the top 10. Missouri will likely win the Big Twelve North but not likely to get through that half the conference without a loss and the trip to Austin will be a problem. Move ‘em to 12th. Lots of changes at West Virginia in both the coaching staff and backfield. I have trouble with them ahead of Auburn, Wisconsin and Texas. I could say the same thing about Clemson but the ACC has to show up somewhere don’t they.
Opps, I’m now thinking where the teams may end the season. And perhaps the voters have also. They seem to pick a conference winner knowing they go to a BCS Bowl and with a decent bowl game performance, a top ten finish.
As Marion Jones heads to prison, Kelli White prepares to receive her MBA
A far, far better thing I did, than I have ever done,
A far, far better place I am, than I could have gone.
These could be the words ringing in Kelli White’s mind as her competitor on the track, Marion Jones, heads to prison after admitting to lying about her drug use. And White must ponder what her fate may have been had she not admitted her actions to both the government and the USADA in 2004. Instead of a prison sentence like Jones, she is scheduled to complete an MBA program.
Classic Game Withdrawal
Resending our note to college presidents from a year ago
College Presidents,
With all but a few games between this season and the bowls, it is time to preview the morsels available for the college football fan to satisfy his/her hunger before the New Year’s Day Games. The best team in the land according to all polls will continue their hibernation another 32 days before reappearing next year to show the world they deserve the ranking. Give them a bye week for sure, maybe two for good measure, but 6 weeks off. Don’t we want teams playing at their best? Don’t we want to see the best teams play?
Let’s have an eight team playoff using the bowls for the final, semi-finals and those losing out in the first round. The games will make money. And if you are really worried about student athletes not getting to class, get rid of the mid week games. Oh, you can do that for basketball and baseball, too. I forget, their tournaments don’t get in the way of any real school work.
Back to the playoff system. Wouldn’t it be great if every week, we could look forward to a couple of top 10 teams squaring off to determine who gets to the title game. All are guaranteed a first round game and a bowl game. The last two standing play in a third game to take home the crystal. Why is this so hard?
SportsCrossfire
BCS Snubs Mizzou
Yes, the Bowl Championship Series performed poorly in setting up the 2007 – 2008 post season match-ups. The decisions made continue to fly in face of seeing the best gridiron performances and lean toward appeasing those hugging the tree of tradition. However, the most flagrant foul was not made by the selection group, it was made by the BCS rules themselves. More on that in a minute.
Let’s start with the match-ups. Georgia vs. Hawaii or USC. Let’s me think about that. Nothing against the great performance by Hawaii this year. They certainly deserve a slot and will perform well. They have one of the best set of receivers to go with a top notch quarterback. I simply would prefer the Bulldogs vs. the Trojans.
Now back to Missouri. Yes, they are more deserving than Kansas and that is the decision that should have been made. Yet, Kansas is deserving and should be there instead of… Illinois. Yes, 9 and 3 should not get you in the game unless those losses come at the hands of teams ranked at year end in the top 5. Get the conferences to send a champion and the rest of the slots open to the best teams with an eye toward the best games.
Or simply give us a playoff.
Kansas – Missouri battle for 2nd slot
In August, no one was writing about the two Big 12 teams that would be battling it out for a slot in the National Championship Game. If anyone had, they certainly would not have been writing about two teams out of the Big-12 North and Kansas would not have been either of them.
But here we are and more importantly here undefeated Kansas and Missouri with one loss to Oklahoma are, five days before the most important game in the schools football history. Two high powered offenses will meet to see who goes into the Big-12 Championship game as the Number 2 Team in the nation. Who knows, the way this season has gone, Arkansas could spoil LSU’s Friday and the winner may be ranked 1st in the championship game.
Will the best 2 teams please stand up?
Texas Tech derails sooner National Championship plans and helps the Big East and Big-Ten in the process. Graham Harrel’s seventy-two pass attempts and 420 yards were too much for an OU team without NCAA passing efficiency leader Sam Bradford. In the process the Red Raiders threw a wrench into the Big 12 Conference Championship being a play-in for the NCAA Championship game. The winner of next week’s Kansas – Missouri contest will need to beat OU in order to represent the Big-12 in the title game. Otherwise, West Virginia with one loss or Ohio State if WV loses to Connecticut or Pittsburgh will make it to the show.  Arizona State could also get there and some think they will be ahead of West Virginia. I don’t see them getting ahead of Ohio State in the polls, even with a Thanksgiving win over USC.
I don’t see a Kansas team able to slip into the title game should they lose the Big-12 Championship Game, like OU did several years ago. It certainly is quite a feat to be the only BCS conference team to go undefeated through the regular season. But a loss late in the season will see the polls drop them behind Ohio State, LSU and West Virginia if the latter two can finish with only one loss. Should Missouri win out, they will be in the show and with back to back wins over Kansas and OU, they certainly deserve it. Will OU play Big 12 spoiler, first by dropping two to Colorado and Texas Tech and then by winning the conference title over the Number 2 team in the country?
And if LSU falters is the SEC Championship game, could we see Ohio State and Virginia Tech play for the national championship?
Big 12 in drivers seat
With 3 teams vying for one of the two slots in New Orleans to decide the NCAA National Football Champion, the Big-12 conference is in an ideal position. It is surprising considering where they conference ranked going into the season, but we all now know the pre-season polls are for the birds, especially of the jay hawk variety. With Arizona’s upset of number 2 Oregon last nite, the field seem to have been narrowed to 5 teams, LSU, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma and Ohio State. Hawaii and Kansas are the only two able to end the season with an unblemished record and the Rainbow State crowd will have to be content with a BCS game outside the Big Easy.
That leaves the lowly Big-12 and Big Ten looking at a possible pairing in the title game should the Tigers of LSU fall in one of the next three games. An unlikely scenario, but this is an unlikely year. I picked LSU and Oklahoma earlier this season and that seems to be as good a guess as any right now. Oklahoma would be aided by beating and undefeated team in the conference final and does not want a rematch with Missouri, so they will be pulling for the Jayhawks to win two more before coming down from the clouds. If that occurs and Texas and Missouri end with 10 wins, the computers will favor the Sooners and I suspect the human element will also.
In any event, all five need to watch their backs. Is an upset awaiting LSU in Oxford??
BCS Big-12 Update
With Kansas, Oklahoma and Missouri sitting at 4, 5 and 6 in the BCS, the Big-12 is looking stronger across the board than it has in quite some time. In fact, if these teams can max out (Missouri and Kansas square off with the winner facing Oklahoma in the Big-12 Title Game) then the Big-12 has an excellent chance of sending a team to New Orleans. If Kansas enters that game undefeated against a one-loss Oklahoma team, then the winner will go to New Orleans. If two one loss teams battle that day, the victor will loose out to a one loss LSU and could find themselves missing out to Oregon with only one loss.
Of course, a lot of this depends on how well the rest of the conference holds up compared to the SEC and Pac Ten teams. Oklahoma needs Texas to win out and would likely do best by being the only team to defeat Kansas vs. beating a two loss Missouri team twice.
And it all starts this Saturday as Kansas continues to get deeper into the conference schedule. Oklahoma State shook Texas up and Kansas better bring their A game to keep the Nov. 24th showdown with Mizzou in tact.
The Curse Continues for Number 2
Putting the boogie man off a week, Boston College joined previous 2nd ranked teams in defeat. This time at the hands of Florida State 27-17. We are seeing parity across the college ranks this season as we have not experienced in a long, long time. The combination of strong defenses across the top teams without a dominating offensive line makes the statement, “On any given Saturday!” more truth than ever. Who is next?
The hex of number 2
As top 10 teams continue to fall the number 2 spot seems to be the most likely culprit. USF fell to Rutgers last Thursday night and the Hoakies cannot fail to see the similarities as they host Boston College this week on none other than Thursday nite. In this week’s game of the week two top ten ACC powers meet with the winner likely to be in the ACC finals come December. The Eagle are ripe for a setback. They get it done with a 27-21 win in Blacksburg.